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　　今天跟大家分享的外刊取自2022年11月16日紐約時(shí)報(bào)，中英文雙語(yǔ)均來(lái)源紐約時(shí)報(bào)中文網(wǎng)。

　　全球人口達(dá)到80億，會(huì)帶來(lái)哪些挑戰(zhàn)？ | 紐約時(shí)報(bào)

　　World Population Reaches 8 Billion, U.N. Says

　　DANIEL VICTOR

　　2022年11月16日

　　Until 1804, fewer than one billion people roamed our planet. More than a century later, in 1927, we crossed two billion.

　　直到1804年的時(shí)候，地球上的人口還不到10億。一個(gè)多世紀(jì)后的1927年就突破了20億。

　　Since then, the world population has shot up in the shape of a hockey stick, boosted by the triumphs of modern medicine and public health.

　　那以后，在現(xiàn)代醫(yī)學(xué)和公共衛(wèi)生進(jìn)步的推動(dòng)下，世界人口呈直線上升。

　　The latest marker was passed on Tuesday, when the United Nations said the world population had reached eight billion, just 11 years after it passed seven billion. (It is an inexact number, since there is no official count, but the international organization said its projections crossed the line on Tuesday.)

　　周二，聯(lián)合國(guó)宣布世界人口達(dá)到80億，突破了新的里程碑，就在11年前，這一數(shù)字才剛剛超過(guò)70億。（因?yàn)槿狈俜浇y(tǒng)計(jì)，這一數(shù)字并不準(zhǔn)確，但聯(lián)合國(guó)表示其預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果在周二越過(guò)了這條線。）

　　The growth rate, which is expected to slow globally over the coming decades, has been uneven around the world. Slowing growth rates in populous nations like China and the United States have caused some alarm, threatening to upend their societies. Rising birthrates in poorer nations threaten to strain systems that are already struggling.

　　在全球范圍內(nèi)，人口增速預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)幾十年間放緩，各地增速也并不均衡。在中國(guó)和美國(guó)這樣的人口大國(guó)，人口增速放緩已經(jīng)引起一些人的警覺(jué)，這一現(xiàn)象可能顛覆這些國(guó)家的社會(huì)。較貧窮國(guó)家不斷上升的出生率可能會(huì)給本已捉襟見(jiàn)肘的系統(tǒng)帶來(lái)更多壓力。

　　Here are a few of the challenges ahead.

　　以下是未來(lái)的一些挑戰(zhàn)。

　　Much of the population growth comes from the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa.

　　大部分人口增長(zhǎng)都來(lái)自最貧困的國(guó)家，特別是在撒哈拉以南非洲。

　　About 70 percent of the growth to eight billion from seven billion happened in low- and lower-middle-income countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, the United Nations said. The trend is expected to become even more pronounced in the years ahead.

　　聯(lián)合國(guó)表示，在人口從70億增長(zhǎng)到80億的過(guò)程中，約有70%的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)自低收入和中低收入國(guó)家，大多集中在撒哈拉以南非洲。預(yù)計(jì)這一趨勢(shì)將在未來(lái)幾年變得更加明顯。

　　"When the next billion is added between 2022 and 2037, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90 percent of global growth," the organization said.

　　"當(dāng)人口在2022年至2037年再新增10億，這兩類(lèi)國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)將占全球增長(zhǎng)的90%以上，"該機(jī)構(gòu)表示。

　　The fertility rate has dropped globally; in high-income nations, the number of people under 65 is expected to decline in the coming years, the United Nations said. But the fertility rate has remained stubbornly high in poorer countries, where more women and girls lack access to sexual and reproductive health care, including contraception.

　　全球生育率已經(jīng)下滑；聯(lián)合國(guó)表示，在高收入國(guó)家，65歲以下人口預(yù)計(jì)將在未來(lái)幾年減少。但在生育率一直居高不下的較貧困國(guó)家，更多婦女和女孩無(wú)法獲得性健康和生殖健康保障，包括避孕。

　　Meeting the needs — including education, public health, employment, and water and sanitation — created by that growth will require "a significant increase in public expenditures," the organization said.

　　聯(lián)合國(guó)表示，要滿足人口增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)的教育、公共衛(wèi)生、就業(yè)、飲水和衛(wèi)生等需求，需要"大幅增加公共支出"。

　　The environmental impact: Our levels of production and consumption are unsustainable.

　　環(huán)境影響：我們的生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)水平是不可持續(xù)的。

　　The growing population has helped fuel consumption at what experts say is an unsustainable pace. It has contributed to environmental challenges, including climate change, deforestation and the loss of biodiversity, the United Nations said.

　　不斷增長(zhǎng)的人口加劇了燃料的消耗，專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)這樣的速度是不可持續(xù)的。聯(lián)合國(guó)表示，這加劇了環(huán)境挑戰(zhàn)，包括氣候變化、森林砍伐和生物多樣性的喪失。

　　"Slower population growth over many decades could help to mitigate the further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century," the organization said.

　　"數(shù)十年的人口增長(zhǎng)放緩有助于減輕本世紀(jì)下半葉環(huán)境破壞的進(jìn)一步累積，"該機(jī)構(gòu)表示。

　　Lower-income countries, where the population growth is concentrated, have contributed far less to climate change than the richest nations. But as poorer populations grow, "their energy consumption will need to increase substantially if they are to develop economically," the organization said.

　　人口增長(zhǎng)集中的低收入國(guó)家對(duì)氣候變化應(yīng)負(fù)的責(zé)任遠(yuǎn)小于最富裕國(guó)家。但隨著貧困人口的增加，"要發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)他們就必須大幅增加能源的消耗，"該機(jī)構(gòu)表示。

　　Experts are forecasting slower growth ahead.

　　專(zhuān)家預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)人口增長(zhǎng)將放緩。

　　While it took 11 years for the population to grow to eight billion from seven billion, the United Nations said it expected 15 years to pass before we reach nine billion, in 2037, and another 22 to pass before 10 billion, in 2058.

　　雖然世界人口從70億增長(zhǎng)到80億花了11年時(shí)間，但聯(lián)合國(guó)表示，達(dá)到90億還需15年，也就是在2037年，達(dá)到100億則要到22年后的2058年。

　　"A decline in the world’s population is not expected for another half-century, with the exact date depending largely on the future pace of fertility decline in today’s high-fertility countries," the organization said.

　　"預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)半個(gè)世紀(jì)，世界人口不會(huì)減少，具體節(jié)點(diǎn)主要取決于目前高生育率國(guó)家未來(lái)生育率下滑的速度，"該機(jī)構(gòu)表示。

　　China’s births hit a historic low in 2021, a fact that, coupled with its increased life expectancy, could lead to labor shortages and hampered economic growth. The United States has slowed down as well, growing at the slowest rate since the 1930s over the past decade.

　　中國(guó)的出生率在2021年創(chuàng)下新低，加之預(yù)期壽命的增加，可能導(dǎo)致勞動(dòng)力短缺并阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。美國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)也在放緩，過(guò)去十年的增速是自上世紀(jì)30年代以來(lái)的最低。

　　India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, the United Nations said in July.

　　聯(lián)合國(guó)在7月表示，預(yù)計(jì)印度將于2023年超過(guò)中國(guó)，成為世界上人口最多的國(guó)家。